Friday, November 09, 2007

Predictions Past and Future

In the past year I have learned alot from both writing this and reading other peoples work. What began as a silver blog has by necessity spread to comment on many other aspects of the economy, Canadian, U.S. and world.

Some weeks it's not necessary to mention what happened to gold and silver but little did happen, rather it's more important to highlight a greater trend, a new threat, or the corruption inherent in the system.

The past

With the year end approaching I thought it was time to consider past and future predictions. In mid 2006 I made a number of predictions to friends.

1. U.S. recession- While I can't prove it by Government stats- (they lie, they must lie: the current inflation numbers .8 percent is irrational,) a recession did start. Stats by John Williams of Shadowstats.com claim CPI of near 10% and negative growth for several quarters which feels correct to me.

2. Oil $100 - it's been too close to quibble- I made it

3. Silver $16- we've nearly hit it this week and I suspect we will break it by year end

4. Gold $900 , we've hit 840 and like silver I think the run will last till year end

5. A U.S. dollar melt down- this is tricky I said we'd break parity and might hit 1.10, we did but I did not expect it only last 1 day. I'll take this one too

6. I mentioned dollar melt down and U.S. fiscal crisis but I
apparently did not define myself well enough as some people have claimed these are too vague to quantify. I certainly think a 25%depreciation of the Dollar vs. the loonie counts as a meltdown, but to be honest I expected something much more drastic to happen to quality as a fiscal crisis.

7. I predicted lenders and banks would fail. This was a gimme to anyone who had read anything but my friends still did not
believe me. Well the number of mortgage companies that have disappeared, closed, filed for protection is actually quite huge and one bank,NetBank did indeed
file for bankruptcy protection. I felt we might get a big fist too but I have no doubt this will run 2 more years at least.

That was about it, I can't say I'm too pissed off about my predictions, I seem to have the trend right but I was a little to anxious or pessimistic for 2007. My biggest disappointment was my failure to see the credit crunch would weaken mining shares despite the actual metals preforming well. Equities are still far off 12 month highs despite metals are at 26 year highs. That sucks but does give us time to accumulate

The Future

I plan on building a very detailed list for 2008 with half a dozen trends, and particular price goals and even a series of expected political political moves. This is not going to be a road map for any ones investments other than my own but rather a fun little game to watch over the coming year.

For your part I'd like to hear some of your predictions. What do you see that I may not. What spoilt this years guesses. Mostly I'd just like some good natured discussion of the issues on the page.

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