Sunday, February 10, 2008

Canadian Silver Bug- Feb Musings




It seems that every day for the last week or so Silver and Gold keep getting attacked in overnight trading in Europe, it would open down in New York and spend most of the day trying to gain back its losses. The good news is they have held up very well and won back their losses every time.

Various chartists have been calling for a correction especially if gold could not hold 900, but in the last few days Gold fought off the attacks and closed above 900, just short of 910 and looks to be closing the week around 923.20. I’m really quite happy about silver recently in the recent attacks it usually dropped less than gold and had robust recoveries leaving us with a Gold/Silver Ratio at 53.74 which is still a fair ways off from my predicted 48 ratio if my target prices of $1200/$25 are to be met but it is the first time in the last year we’ve consistent narrowing which is very promising.


Silver has closed at $17.18 for the week despite the chartists, we’ll see how they interpret this weeks actions and whether they will change their tunes. That said, eventually we will have a correction and provided I don’t get caught in a labour dispute this spring I will be buying strongly again if we should go below $15, and would probably even borrow some small amount to buy under $13.50, but I don't expect to see that level every again.

When an eventual correction does comes it could easily be a 10-15% drop, but if we gain another 10% before that correction arrives it won’t have been much of a buying opportunity, will it? If you don’t expect some calamity (like my potential strike) don’t worry about prices at these levels just worry about how much you have and how much more you can buy. In the big scheme of things, 3-4 years from now the difference between $830 and $930 gold or $15 and $17 silver will be laughable when we are talking $2000 gold and $100 digit silver, buy while you can if you have cash or create a monthly buying plan and average your price out.

There are a few things are a few things I don’t understand right now, the recent reductions in the US Fed rate do not seem to have made any difference to the U.S. dollar index. Is someone supporting the dollar behind the scenes because it should have taken major hit from this kind of rate reduction?

The recent U.S. budget was announced at whopping $3.1 Trillion, up 6% from last year, with claims it will keep the economy and the military healthy and happy. In reality the economy is faltering, government revenues will shrink for the Feds the same way they have for many U.S. states during the last year, there will certainly be more stimulus packages, more disaster funding, more people on unemployment and pensions yet they claim the budget will balance buy 2012. Do they really think people are that stupid???? This is the begining of an attempted reinflation that will cause high if not hyper inflation.

In Canada, the GI Joe wanna be Conservative government has spend so much on new military hardware and tax cuts that we can expect a deficit for the first time in nearly a decade. While I do not agree with their stance on many social issues they are least conservative stances like their name, but just like their neo-con buddies down south this crowd of idiots has no idea what fiscal conservatism is. DON’T SPEND MORE MONEY THAN YOU HAVE. PAY OFF YOUR DEBTS. They are not true conservatives just as the Bushites are not real conservatives, what they are is even beyond what I'm willing to put in print, and my standards are pretty low. Whoever takes over from Harper and his clowns will need reclaim a decade of fiscal progress that has been ruined in 2 short years. For the third time in my voting life, non conservative politicians will be forced to act fiscally conservative to fix conservative mismanagement. What a screwed up world.

It seems the financial woes of the world are beginning to go mainstream with recession mentioned daily in the news and a few brave souls have even said the D word (Depression, and not the kind that Prozac fixes).

A new documentary I.O.U.S.A following U.S. Comptroller General David Walking quest to inform the public of what their politicians will not opened at the Sundance film festival in January. Watch for it to enter general release.

I really have to say I’m quite pleased with this trend of documentaries making the main stream. Love him or hate him, Michael Moore has done everyone a great service making documentaries vogue. It’s a shame however we lost Aaron Russo, Freedom to Fascism was a great movie, I'd recommend anyone who has not seen yet to go out and rent it. Even better buy a copy of both of these movies when available and loan them to anyone you can convince to watch them.

Keep a watch on the junior miners, there are still a couple weeks left for Canadians to buy their RRSPs and there are still some damn good deals out there, make the move while you can. In the next weeks I will talk about several companies I've purchased for this years contributions, including Impact Silver, Farallon Resources, Accadian mining and Silver Corp.

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