Thursday, October 08, 2009

Still bullish on silver.

I've been wary of jinxing the metals breakout by posting on it but here it goes. Some chartists are claiming that this week's new high is very significant and a signal for a continued bull move but just as many claim we are well over bought and are still due a significant correction, so what are you to believe?

I believe gold's new high means the next low will be higher than the previous low, all good for the long term. If it keeps running I'm OK with it but if it dips I know it will dip less than last time, so I'm OK with that too. Certainly no one is going to fix the fundamentals of debt, debasement of currency and fraudulent paper any time soon,so why worry? The bull will continue in its own time just be calm and patient.

Since I don't trade my bullion I do have a small gold ETF stake that I intend sell in the $1070-1100 range should it go there too quickly or it trades horizontally for more than a week. I figure fast gains mean fleeting exuberance; probably not the perfect strategy but I such at timing so I'm taking some off the table this leg rather than ride it both ways. If we actually hit $1200 this year as some are predicting I will reenter on in a bear ETF, expecting a $150-200 correction.

Despite the recent run up, silver still gets little mention, little respect and very few comments on the few occasions when a newspaper lowers itself to write on the subject.

It's also disheartening that on this leg up silver is no where near a new high. Obviously the argument that silver is no longer a monetary metal is tainting the "western" market but there are still good reasons to stay bullish on silver such as new mints generating retail sales in China and now the HDFC bank of India (a big retail gold seller) is looking at adding silver bars to its product line.

These are the biggest markets in the world and since both China and India believe gold and silver are monetary assets this can be seen as nothing but mega bullish for long term prices. What the west believes is becoming less and less relevant, if China and India declare Yaks are a form of money, yaks would be a very good investment. You heard it here first, we are going to the Yak standard!

Another bullish point reported by the Financial times is the possibility that new positional limits on futures may drive some institutional investors to physical ownership of commodities instead of paper. This is the kind of action that will help FIX the commodity market and in particular help end the comex fraud.

Things still look very bad for the U.S. economy and good for metals long term, don't be tricked by claims that this is the top and bail on your physical positions, sit tight and save up to accumulate more on the next dip.

Rolfe Winkler at Reuters writes a decent little piece on owning gold as insurance and with the silver market being even smaller, this argument is even more valid for silver investment.

Have a good week, keep watching the spot prices, and keep the cackles and the screams of "I told you so" to a bare minimum. I probably won't ;) but try to be a better person than me!

23 comments:

FlookiiDuke said...

Hi CSB,

I just stumbled across ScotiaMoccata's new online bullion store. Not sure if you are aware that this was up and running.

http://www.scotiamocatta.com/eStore/

Maybe one of your readers who has used the service can review the service?

Also I'm interested on your thoughts of which bullion/coin sizes to invest in. I have a spread of bar sizes but given the recent run up in Silver and my expectations for the future I'm thinking that maybe adding some 1oz rounds/coins to the mix might not be such a bad idea, after all you may only need funds from a few ounces and dropping a 1000oz bar may seriously overshoot your requirements not to mention the capital gains of such a large sale.

Anyway I would appreciate your thoughts on investment bar size mix.

Cheers,

FlookiiDuke.

CSB said...

If you believe there is even a remote possibility that you might be forced to used silver as currency in a crisis then I suggest that you should have 100 oz in rounds. Even if you keep big bars in a safety deposit box I would keep the 1 oz rounds close at hand so emergeny, bank holidays etc will not keep you from resonably sized silver currency.

I've got a good portion of my loot in big bars but I continue to add small bits like a roll of maples or First majestic rounds when I can

FlookiiDuke said...

CSB: I'm not too worried about the Armageddon scenario but was more thinking that an 'under the radar' liquidation into fiat during retirement might be easier with 1oz rounds/maples. Obviously I'm hoping silver will be several hundred dollars per ounce by then.

This is something I've seen the gold bugs discuss on several forums and thought it could easily be applied to silver given the future potential for silver price appreciation.

CSB said...

Big gold or big silver causes the same issues of where to sell it when it goes to the moon. I would concure that small silver would be an easy and relatively low key way to liquidate some of your metal. Premiums are higher but its less likely you'll be approached by government to pay capital Gains.

FlookiiDuke said...

I see some First Majestic rounds in my future.

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

I picked up 500 silver maples from Suisse Gold Corp. @ golddealer.ca I highly recommend them. I got a great price per round, and not being familiar with these kinds of transactions, I found the service very good.

Jacob Wilms

Anonymous said...

I bought some silver from Suisse Gold Corporation and it is the worst place ever. The owner, Richard Oliver is a jerk and dishonest person. He did not send my items, I am still fighting to get the RCMP to get involved. Richard is rude, unreliable and I would not do business with him.

www.golddealer.ca/contact.cfm

Anonymous said...

Richard Oliver of Suisse Gold Corp is a crook, do not do business with him or you will get ripped off.

You have been warned!

Anonymous said...

The previous reviewers are correct in warning prospective buyers to avoid Suisse Gold Corp at all costs. The owner Richard Oliver conducts his business in a manner that falls somewhere between amateur incompetence and outright fraud. He substitutes coins if he doesn't have the product you ordered. He doesn't use registered delivery so if there is a problem with the shipment you may be out of luck. On top of that he is just an overall jackass to deal with and doesn't provide tracking #s. Don't do business with this golddealer.ca!

Anonymous said...

I wished I found this web posting before I ordered. DO NOT buy from Suisse Gold Corp, golddealer.ca. Richard Oliver is dishonest, unprofessional, and a real crook. Like the other reviewers, my experience was awful. Richard rarely replies to emails or returns calls, no notice of shipment, no tracking number, does not ship insured with restricted delivery. When package is lost, he blames the customer and ridiculously wants the customer to investigate the postman, the post office, and notify the police. Doesn’t ship what you ordered; sends you whatever coins he has on hand and pockets the difference. That’s fraudulent, illegal, and false advertisement. Also discloses confidential customer information to other customers – see Yelp.com review from Sean P. I wouldn’t be surprise that he wrote his own phony 5 star review under an alias name (nice try Richard/Sean P./and probably Jacob Wilms in above post).

Anonymous said...

suisse gold corp

do not take anything these people tell you seriously!

Richard will tell you that he has the product on hand(at his feet) and available and will be shipped immediately-do not for the life of your-self,believe it.

He also lied to me about the product and sent something different(twice).

He will keep your money,as if it is no concern to you whatsoever...then promise you that he will not retire on your funds that he has recieved and your just supposed to be trustfull because he says so.

He will also be the first to offer a refund when your undelivered product has turned a profit and has not even been sent-i doubt very much this same offer applies when your product has lost money from his unfullfilled promises of fast and efficient delivery.

Deciept and lies on availability,delivery and the product(what you think you getting, compared to what you actually get),are how these people work at the customer's expence.

People are far better off to pay a bit more at a more reputable dealer that can and will deliver as promised with no lies or deciept,as this corporation has failed to do so on my past three orders.

First order;
Was offered a deal on walking liberty's,(was my first buy ever),no where in the add for these rounds was the word,"replica".
Also took for-ever to recieve the,"replica's"..

Second order;
I put a lot of $$$ up front on,"trust", again the longer than long wait with no explanation was unbearable

Third Order;
Richard called(silver was very high),said he had a product at his feet and that he was only giving a,"few" people this exclusive offer.
The coins were,"2011",walking liberty's laying(he said) at his feet and could be sent immediately,being the sucker i was,i bought them. I told him i was counting on immediate delivery and he promised they would be.
I waited 2 months

I had a portion of the product pre-sold at a higher price,if i had recieved immediate delivery as was promised and guaranteed.
The product was not the year that was promised,but instead ,"2006", which is not the product i had ordered and presold,or that i was lead to believe i was buying.

If you want to be forced on anti-anxiety meds,then dealing with this dealer is the way to go about it.

He will not answer e-mails when you are concerned about your order,will not return phone calls which will leave you in a state of worry, doubt and panic.

He is only concerned about getting your money and will promise what-ever he has to -then when it comes to him holding his word,forget it.
False promises and lies are about the only thing he can guarantee.

- anyone who believes him is sadly mistaken.

Be prepared to lose money while waiting enormous amounts of time for your order while being ignored with no explanation as to whats going on with your purchase or when or if it will be delivered.

i would NOT recommend purchasing any large orders with this dealer where your mental health will be put at risk with the anxiety involved

When you are ready to call the police or at your wits end because of whats going on-then magically your order will be shipped.

Ben said...

I was going to make a $6664.00 wire transfer tommorow. He has the best over-spot prices out of the many I searched for already. I seen not only these posts but of ones who have been using him for the past two years with no problems. I am so tempted to buying from him as opposed to apmex. Apmex premiums are a little high. I spoke with him today and asked how long it would take to make a shipment. He said 6 - 8 days with Canada Post. He's not charging extra for insuring the product. Which means he's probably sending it uninsured.

Ben said...

I also said I will be wiring a large amount and he replied "not to disrespectful but a large amount is $664,000. That was kind of weird.

LordY said...

i just want to say, guys, thanks a lot. Almost was going to set up an account with golddealer.ca (was kind of suspecious why it is called suisse, as it bears no relation whatsoever with switzerland) and you know what's going to follow. Buying gold is a big deal for people. I wonder if anyone would recommend some good dealers. Why the banks wouldn't sell physical gold?

SilverSurfer said...

I have bought from silvergoldbull.com three times and have always been satisfied, VERY FAST SHIPPING!! their premiums are a bit high but I'm willing to pay the extra 1 or 2 % for assurance and peace of mind.

Anonymous said...

I agree completely with the other people here who have been scammed/screwed by Richard Oliver and Suisse Gold Corp. I have been waiting over two months for my order of silver and gold, he won't reply to emails. I am getting the RCMP involved to shut this joker down.

Anonymous said...

Suisse Gold Corporation is NOT listed as a corporation in Canada nor Washington state. He is a fraud.
He had 1/4 of my order shipped and has kept the money for the other 3/4. Does not respond to emails.

Anonymous said...

I have turned my case over to the Better Business Bureau of Vancouver Island. They helped resolve two cases late last year against Suisse Gold. The more complaints they get the better!

http://vi.bbb.org

Cyberock said...

Kitco service and delivery by Fedex is awesome. I bought 2 times with them and i did had absolutly no problem. I speak french and they have a wonderful french service. They are located in Montreal and they accept local pickup. I referred my friends and everything went well for them too. https://online.kitco.com/

goldbaby said...

I wish I would have listened to the comments here about Suisse Gold Corp & it's deceitful owner, Richard Oliver. I paid for my gold & silver in Sept.2011, got the gold in Dec. after many emails & calls but still have not received my silver.

Thx to Anonymous for referral to the BBB. I will also contact the police - local & RCMP. How can we stop Richard from continuing his seemingly fraudalent biz?

Anonymous said...

Just an update here. I have had similar experiences with Richard golddealer.ca. While in the past the shipments (early 2011) arrived timely, I've been waiting for my Silver and Gold since early 2012. I already got the BBB involved, but they don't seem to get hold of him. Also official complaint letters were refused.

I'm currently in the process of putting a legal case together. I suppose the previous attempts to shut him down (RCMP etc.) by others proved futile.

According to my research, they got burned with MF Global and made a couple personal risky bets in the BC real-estate market. Right now, it is unclear how much equity is diverted out of the business to fund those bets or to what degree the business is operated as a Ponzee scheme.

I can only recommend anyone to be careful with mail-order in general and these guys (golddealer.ca) in particular. Because of my bad experience, I'd rather pay the higher premium at a local coinshop and actually see what I'm buying than being at the mercy of potential fraudsters.

Especially in Canada it appears to be difficult to shut such businesses down.

Anonymous said...

I'm not surprised Suisse Gold/Richard Oliver are getting the bad reviews listed above - he initially got dishonorably discharged from the Canadian Military, then went on to make money selling internet porn - look up Cytron + Richard Oliver if you want to know some of the other things he's accomplished in his past.

Anonymous said...

Holy Shit, has this Oliver guy ever done something honest and honorable in his entire life? There's a fellow here in Toronto called Russel Oliver, who buys Gold, etc, and I wondered if there is any relationship? Also thanks for the posts, had my order ready to go and then decided to check the site out..It felt strange not providing shipping method. Almost made a big mistake.