Thursday, December 23, 2010

2010 prediction review

I’m a little surprised this year by metals market, not because they performed different than my predictions, I was spot on with gold hitting $1400 and silver clearing $25+. What I was surprised about was the fact that these two did so when without much greater weakness in the dollar index. This says one or two things to me

1. Every nation is in a cycle of competitive monetization making gold and silver appreciate far more than the dollar index would otherwise indicate. (we are all screwed)
2. That there is one hell of more potential in metals than even I believed.

Face it, I’m not one of those writers predicting $20k gold, my modest 5 year prediction (oct 09) is for $3000 and $120 silver but if we can make these kinds of gains this year with the U.S. dollar index still above 80, what the hell happens when it actually breaks down?
My “all hell breaks loose” scenario begins to be more realistic and that scares me. Personally I would prefer austerity, deflation and an eventual steady state economy, to inflation, out of controlled growth, and the world turning into a desolate Easter island scene.

I think the pressure on the comex is growing and it was good to see some aggressive withdrawals in Nov/Dec, while its bounced back a bit we saw silver stocks down to about 103 million ounces in mid dec. I believed we would break below 100 but at least the momentum is going in the right direction into next year.

Another hit for this year was my prediction that 43 million Americans would be on food stamps in 2011, considering last months numbers put it at 42.9 million I’m pretty sure Dec can add a meagre 100,000 to the rolls. I think my 5 year at 60 million food stamps receipts is still quite doable, assuming of course food stamps still exist when the government goes FUBAR.

Oil, I saw $100 and we’ve just recently touched $90, so a miss. In Canada we have seen regional shortages and price spikes attributed not to shortage of crude supply but the closure of the Montreal refinery and a corresponding shortage of distillates. Big oil has us by the short hairs and figure they can cut production and then rationalize higher domestic prices rather than refurbish and update old refineries. The bonus however people will become acclimatized to higher fuel price and with hopefully begin to adjust their behaviours.

I missed bank failures badly 157 vs 250. I don’t see how the at risk list can keep growing at this pace yet the actual failures does not keep up,, my guess is they are pushing failures off to the future somehow with flawed accounting practices. A great deal of commercial property is financed by region banks so I still expect another huge wave of mid tier failures.

All in all the trend I see is continuing but I seem to be over anxious about how fast the fall will be, I know Rome did not fall in a single year but damn I don’t want this to linger and linger I just want it all to blow up, get it over with so we can start working on a new model.

Locally I see an awakening with many Transition towns, Post carbon groups and such popping up in many communities, this is a good thing and with luck many of these groups will establish and flourish before all hell breaks loose. Me I’m waffling between adapting in place with illegal chickens in my backyard or going all out and moving to a planned eco community where a number of families can attempt total food security, reskill in sustainable living and build a functional, inclusive and caring community. Pipe dream??????

I know I’ve not been posting a lot this year but I still appreciate my readers and their feedback, I know you’re still out there from my hit counter and the occasional Adsence cheques and I thank you for your support. There are many voices on the web saying much the same thing and sometimes I feel I’m just a very weak voice in a large off key choir. I’m often frustrated by the intransience and stupidity of the main stream but regardless I will continue to post when I can. It’s imperative however that we all look a little inward and begin focusing our efforts in preparation for an ugly future. It’s obvious that we cannot educate or save the majority in time but please be open to your neighbours, friends and family. Share if you can, educate where you can, encourage where you can and be respectful to those who screwed up. The future could suck real bad or we can work to make it suck less, Your choice.